Recession to be deeper, longer than expected, ASB bank predicts
The potential recession could be deeper and more prolonged than previously thought, with the economy forecast to contract at levels last seen during the global financial crisis (GFC).
ASB predicted the economy would contract about 2 percent by early next year – that’s more than half the decline seen during the GFC – as living costs outstrip wage growth for many households.
Chief economist Nick Tuffley said if the country was not already in a recession, it appeared to be heading that way, with stubbornly high inflation and a drum-tight labour market.
He said it was going to be a tough year for many, with the cost of living unlikely to ease until early next year.
“Things have overheated, and the stimulus to get us through the pandemic has been arguably too successful at keeping the economy running along, so now we’re feeling the effects of that and the economy being stretched,” he said.
“We expect rising living costs to add around $150 a week to household spending this year, and income growth is not likely to keep pace with this, despite another year of strong wage growth.
“Overall, we’re going to have to endure a year of things cooling down and that putting a bit of pressure on finances, so people will be putting away their wallets for a period and reining in their spending.”
Tuffley said home borrowers and those with higher debt levels would disproportionately feel the brunt of the downturn, with inflation expected to remain above 7 percent for the first half of this year.
Consumer habits have been changing over the past year: retail spending has been falling and people are more likely to spend on experiences, such as concerts and travel, rather than durable goods and furniture as they did during lockdowns.
“The continuing tourism recovery is another positive,” he said.
“We’re back to about two-thirds of pre-pandemic visitor numbers to New Zealand and there’s still some scope for markets like China to recover, so that’s really going to help our tourism and entertainment businesses, although we expect labour shortages to hamper growth.”
Tuffley expected the Reserve Bank would be in a position to start gradually pulling interest rates down to a more neutral level in the first half of 2024, the equivalent of monetary rehydration, he said.
Before then, he expected house prices would continue to decline, with a 25 percent peak-to-trough fall forecast.
House prices were already down about 16 percent in most centres, and over 20 percent in Auckland and Wellington, he said.
뉴질랜드 경기 침체 예상보다 더 나쁘고 장기화될 수 있다
“뉴질랜드의 경기 침체가 예상보다 더 나쁘고 장기화될 수 있으며, 경제가 글로벌 금융위기(GFC) 때와 같은 수준까지 떨어질 것으로 예상된다.”고 ASB 경제학자가 경고했다.
많은 가구에서 생활비 상승이 임금 상승을 능가하면서, ASB은 내년 초까지 경제가 약 2% 축소될 것으로 예상했다.
뉴질랜드 경제학자 닉 터플리(Nick Tuffley)는 뉴질랜드 경제가 높은 인플레이션과 타이트한 노동 시장으로 인해 이미 침체 상태에 있다면서, 이번 분기에는 소비자 물가 지수가 전년 대비 적어도 7% 상승할 것으로 예상된다고 말했다.
그는 “내년 초까지는 생활비가 완화되지 않을 것으로 예상된다며 팬데믹을 극복하기 위한 정책이 경제를 유지하는데 성공적이었지만 이제 그 영향과 부담을 떠안고 있다. 올해 생활비 상승으로 인해 가계 지출이 주간 약 150달러 증가할 것으로 예상된다.”
그는 또 “전반적으로 올해 경기가 둔화되고 재정적 압박을 받을 것이며, 사람들은 지출을 줄이고 지갑을 조이게 될 것이다. 지난 1년간 사람들의 소비습관이 변화하면서 소매 판매액은 감소하고 있고, 콘서트나 여행과 같은 경험에 소비가 늘고있는 경향이 있다”고 덧붙였다.
뉴질랜드의 중앙은행은 2024년 상반기에 이르러 점진적으로 이자율을 중립적인 수준으로 내리기 시작할 것이라는 게 경제학자들의 공통적인 의견이다.
뉴질랜드의 주택 가격은 최대 25% 하락할 것으로 예상되었는데 이미 대부분의 지역에서 주택 가격이 약 16% 하락했으며, 오클랜드와 웰링턴에서는 20% 이상 하락했다.