부동산 경기 회복세, 완만하지만 확실한 상승세 이어져
Momentum gradually builds in market upturn
Property values in Aotearoa New Zealand rose by +0.3% in April, continuing the string of modest gains since the start of the year.
April’s rise on the Cotality hedonic Home Value Index (HVI) took values to $819,096, the highest since June last year ($822,175), but still down by about -16% from the January 2022 peak of $974,045.
Around the main centres, April was a stronger month for most, with Kirikiriroa Hamilton up by +0.8%, Ōtautahi Christchurch by +0.5%, and Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland rising +0.3%. Ōtepoti Dunedin, Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington, and Tauranga each saw a mild lift of +0.1% in April.
The hedonic methodology also allows for an analysis by property type, which shows the turning point is now evident for more segments too. Flats (townhouses) have risen by +0.9% nationally since January, standalone houses by +1.0%, and lifestyle properties by a more minor +0.2%.
Cotality NZ (formerly CoreLogic NZ) Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said that the fourth consecutive rise in property values confirms the upturn is unfolding as expected, though a degree of caution remains warranted.
“Clearly, lower mortgage rates have been a strong support for property values in recent months, giving more buyers the confidence and ability to enter the market. Perhaps in a slightly perverse way, the recent global uncertainty about tariffs and trade protectionism could also see interest rates fall further.”
“That said, a fresh boom in property values seems unlikely. For a start, the stock of listings on the market remains high, giving buyers plenty of power when it comes to price negotiations.”
“Meanwhile, as interest rates for internal serviceability tests at the banks fall to less than 7%, the caps on debt-to-income ratios (DTIs) for mortgage lending are reportedly becoming a bigger consideration for more borrowers.”
“It’s also worth keeping in mind we had a ‘mini upturn’ in values over the second half of 2023 and first few months of 2024 which then partially reversed out again. This latest emerging phase of growth seems to have stronger fundamentals than the previous one, but even so, a subdued economic backdrop still looms as a restraint.”
National and Main Centres
| Month | Quarter | Annual | From peak | Median value | |
| Aotearoa New Zealand | 0.3% | 0.9% | -2.0% | -15.9% | $819,096 |
| Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland | 0.3% | 0.9% | -3.1% | -20.7% | $1,081,729 |
| Kirikiriroa Hamilton | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | -10.0% | $756,686 |
| Tauranga | 0.1% | -0.4% | -1.8% | -16.4% | $904,602 |
| Te-Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington | 0.1% | 0.7% | -5.8% | -23.5% | $811,829 |
| Ōtautahi Christchurch | 0.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | -4.4% | $678,745 |
| Ōtepoti Dunedin | 0.1% | -0.1% | -0.3% | -10.1% | $604,664 |
Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland
| Month | Quarter | Annual | From peak | Median value | |
| Rodney | 0.3% | -0.6% | -5.2% | -21.1% | $1,226,785 |
| North Shore | 0.4% | 1.0% | -0.5% | -16.5% | $1,313,091 |
| Waitakere | 0.3% | 0.7% | -2.3% | -22.8% | $938,747 |
| Auckland City | 0.3% | 1.2% | -4.2% | -21.0% | $1,162,488 |
| Manukau | 0.0% | 1.2% | -3.0% | -21.9% | $1,020,445 |
| Papakura | -0.1% | 0.2% | -3.3% | -22.0% | $843,503 |
| Franklin | 0.3% | 1.1% | -1.3% | -20.5% | $926,141 |
April was generally a month of increases for the various sub-markets across Tāmaki Makaurau, although there were some exceptions. Consistent increases of +0.3% to +0.4% were seen in North Shore, Rodney, Waitakere, Auckland City, and Franklin. Manukau was flat and Papakura edged down by -0.1%.
Clearer signs of growth are also evident across a broader three-month horizon, with North Shore, Franklin, Manukau, and Auckland City all up by at least +1.0% since January. Rodney is lagging a little, however, down by -0.6%.
Mr Davidson said, “In any part of the cycle there are different areas that either underperform or outperform, and with buyers still holding the bulk of negotiating power, it’s not all one-way traffic for property values in Auckland. However, the impact of lower mortgage rates does seem to be spreading across the super-city.”
Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington
| Month | Quarter | Annual | From peak | Median value | |
| Kāpiti Coast | 1.4% | 1.7% | -2.5% | -18.5% | $833,629 |
| Porirua | 0.0% | 0.2% | -3.8% | -22.3% | $785,714 |
| Upper Hutt | 0.1% | -0.5% | -5.6% | -23.6% | $703,101 |
| Lower Hutt | 0.4% | 1.1% | -5.5% | -24.3% | $696,764 |
| Wellington City | 0.0% | 0.9% | -6.4% | -23.4% | $910,452 |
Across the wider Te Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington area, Kapiti Coast stood out with a +1.4% rise in values in April, while Lower Hutt also recorded a reasonable gain of +0.4%. However, Upper Hutt only edged up by +0.1%, and Porirua and Wellington City itself were stable.
Kapiti Coast has also shown relative strength over a broader three-month period (+1.7% since January), with Lower Hutt also up by 1.1% in the quarter. Porirua and Upper Hutt have been a little more subdued since January.
“The large falls in property values around the Wellington area in recent years seem to have come to an end, and significantly improved affordability may be piquing the interest of more buyers. But as with many other parts of the country, available listings remain high, so buyers aren’t in a rush to compete or bid up prices sharply,” said Mr Davidson.
Regional results
The emerging upturn in property values can be seen across many of the key provincial markets. Whangarei, Rotorua, and Napier each rose by at least +0.5% in April, with Whanganui and Invercargill both at +0.4%. But Nelson dropped by -0.5%, Hastings was down by -0.6%, and Queenstown -1.0%.
“In the current environment where listings are higher than normal in many parts of the country and some sectors of the economy are yet to rebound, a bit of variability across the provinces is to be expected. But lower interest rates are a significant support, so the outlook for a modest recovery in values this year is likely to be replicated across regional markets too,” added Mr Davidson.
Other Main Urban Areas
| Month | Quarter | Annual | From peak | Median value | |
| Ahuriri Napier | 0.5% | 2.1% | -0.3% | -17.0% | $714,079 |
| Te Papaioea Palmerston North | 0.1% | -0.5% | -2.7% | -18.5% | $606,647 |
| Heretaunga Hastings | -0.6% | -0.5% | -2.3% | -18.6% | $725,007 |
| Whangārei | 0.7% | 1.7% | -0.9% | -16.8% | $748,308 |
| Whanganui | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | -11.9% | $494,838 |
| Rotorua | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.1% | -10.9% | $627,344 |
| Tūranganui-a-Kiwa Gisborne | -0.2% | 1.3% | -4.7% | -17.3% | $583,194 |
| Whakatū Nelson | -0.5% | -1.1% | 1.1% | -11.9% | $736,003 |
| Ngāmotu New Plymouth | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | – | $711,699 |
| Waihōpai Invercargill | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.4% | -0.9% | $473,967 |
| Tāhuna Queenstown | -1.0% | -1.5% | 1.3% | -5.2% | $1,658,111 |
Property market outlook
Looking ahead, Mr Davidson noted that property values nationally remain on track for a rise of around 5% in 2025, a figure broadly consistent with the recent pace of growth (i.e. just short of 1% in the three months since January).
“That rate of increase looks relatively modest by past standards and given that we’re still about 16% below the record highs from early 2022. Some people may well be disappointed with such an outlook.”
“But it’s always worth noting there are two sides to the housing market coin, and any aspiring first home buyers, or investors, who are progressing towards saving a deposit will no doubt be pleased with a flatter patch for values.”
“Of course, there’s now quite a range of lending hurdles which also need to be negotiated, and it’s going to be fascinating to see how the impact of DTIs plays out over the next year or two”, he concluded.
For more property news and insights, visit www.corelogic.co.nz/news-research.
부동산 경기 회복세, 완만하지만 확실한 상승세 이어져
‘전국 주택가격 4월에도 소폭 상승…시장 회복 본격화 조짐’
뉴질랜드 전국 주택시장이 올해 들어 꾸준한 회복세를 이어가고 있다. 4월 주택가격은 전달 대비 평균 0.3% 상승하며, 지난해 6월 이후 최고치를 기록했다. 부동산 시장 분석업체 코털리티 뉴질랜드(Cotality NZ, 구 코어로직)의 헤도닉 주택가치지수(HVI)에 따르면, 4월 기준 평균 주택가격은 81만9,096뉴질랜드달러로 나타났다. 이는 2022년 1월 최고치였던 97만4,045달러 대비 여전히 약 16% 낮은 수준이지만, 지난해 중반 이후 꾸준한 회복 흐름을 보여주고 있다.
주요 도시 중심으로 회복세 뚜렷
주요 도시들을 중심으로 회복세가 더 분명하게 나타나고 있다. 해밀턴은 0.8%, 크라이스트처치는 0.5%, 오클랜드는 0.3% 각각 상승했다. 더니든, 웰링턴, 타우랑가 역시 각각 0.1%의 소폭 상승을 보였다. 특히, 주택 유형별 분석에서는 타운하우스가 1월 이후 0.9%, 단독주택이 1.0% 상승했으며, 라이프스타일 부동산은 0.2% 상승에 그쳤다.
코털리티의 수석 부동산 이코노미스트 켈빈 데이비슨(Kelvin Davidson)은 “이번이 4개월 연속 상승이라는 점에서 회복세가 뚜렷하게 자리 잡고 있다”며 “낮아진 모기지 금리가 구매자들의 진입 장벽을 낮추는 데 큰 역할을 하고 있다”고 분석했다. 그는 “글로벌 무역 불확실성으로 인해 금리가 추가 하락할 가능성도 존재하지만, 여전히 과거와 같은 급등장은 기대하기 어렵다”고 덧붙였다.
| Month | Quarter | Annual | From peak | Median value | |
| Aotearoa New Zealand | 0.3% | 0.9% | -2.0% | -15.9% | $819,096 |
| Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland | 0.3% | 0.9% | -3.1% | -20.7% | $1,081,729 |
| Kirikiriroa Hamilton | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | -10.0% | $756,686 |
| Tauranga | 0.1% | -0.4% | -1.8% | -16.4% | $904,602 |
| Te-Whanganui-a-Tara Wellington | 0.1% | 0.7% | -5.8% | -23.5% | $811,829 |
| Ōtautahi Christchurch | 0.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | -4.4% | $678,745 |
| Ōtepoti Dunedin | 0.1% | -0.1% | -0.3% | -10.1% | $604,664 |
오클랜드·웰링턴 지역, 지역별 차별화 뚜렷
오클랜드 광역권에서는 노스쇼어, 로드니, 와이타케레, 오클랜드시티, 프랭클린 등이 0.3~0.4% 상승세를 보였으나, 마누카우는 보합, 파파쿠라는 0.1% 하락하며 지역별 온도차가 나타났다. 1월 이후 3개월간 누적 상승률에서는 노스쇼어, 프랭클린, 마누카우, 오클랜드시티가 1% 이상 상승해 회복세가 확산되고 있는 것으로 분석된다.
웰링턴권역에서는 카피티 코스트가 1.4% 상승하며 가장 두드러진 회복세를 보였고, 로워헛(Lower Hutt)도 0.4% 올랐다. 반면, 어퍼헛(Upper Hutt)은 0.1% 상승에 그쳤고, 포리루아(Porirua)와 웰링턴 시티는 변화가 없었다. 데이비슨 이코노미스트는 “최근 몇 년간의 급락 이후, 웰링턴 지역에서도 가격 하락세는 마무리되는 분위기”라고 말했다.
| Month | Quarter | Annual | From peak | Median value | |
| Rodney | 0.3% | -0.6% | -5.2% | -21.1% | $1,226,785 |
| North Shore | 0.4% | 1.0% | -0.5% | -16.5% | $1,313,091 |
| Waitakere | 0.3% | 0.7% | -2.3% | -22.8% | $938,747 |
| Auckland City | 0.3% | 1.2% | -4.2% | -21.0% | $1,162,488 |
| Manukau | 0.0% | 1.2% | -3.0% | -21.9% | $1,020,445 |
| Papakura | -0.1% | 0.2% | -3.3% | -22.0% | $843,503 |
| Franklin | 0.3% | 1.1% | -1.3% | -20.5% | $926,141 |
| Month | Quarter | Annual | From peak | Median value | |
| Kāpiti Coast | 1.4% | 1.7% | -2.5% | -18.5% | $833,629 |
| Porirua | 0.0% | 0.2% | -3.8% | -22.3% | $785,714 |
| Upper Hutt | 0.1% | -0.5% | -5.6% | -23.6% | $703,101 |
| Lower Hutt | 0.4% | 1.1% | -5.5% | -24.3% | $696,764 |
| Wellington City | 0.0% | 0.9% | -6.4% | -23.4% | $910,452 |
지방 주택 시장도 회복 흐름에 동참
지방 주요 도시들도 회복세에 동참하고 있다. 왕가레이(Whangārei), 로토루아, 네이피어는 각각 0.5% 이상 상승했고, 황거누이와 인버카길도 0.4%씩 올랐다. 반면, 넬슨은 0.5%, 헤이스팅스는 0.6%, 퀸스타운은 1.0% 하락하며 일부 지역에서는 하방 압력이 여전한 상황이다.
데이비슨은 “고금리 상황이 해소되며 지방 주택 시장에서도 점진적인 회복이 가능할 것으로 보인다”며 “다만, 현재는 매물 물량이 여전히 많은 편이라 시장 전반의 반등이 일괄적으로 나타나긴 어려운 구조”라고 설명했다.
| Month | Quarter | Annual | From peak | Median value | |
| Ahuriri Napier | 0.5% | 2.1% | -0.3% | -17.0% | $714,079 |
| Te Papaioea Palmerston North | 0.1% | -0.5% | -2.7% | -18.5% | $606,647 |
| Heretaunga Hastings | -0.6% | -0.5% | -2.3% | -18.6% | $725,007 |
| Whangārei | 0.7% | 1.7% | -0.9% | -16.8% | $748,308 |
| Whanganui | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | -11.9% | $494,838 |
| Rotorua | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.1% | -10.9% | $627,344 |
| Tūranganui-a-Kiwa Gisborne | -0.2% | 1.3% | -4.7% | -17.3% | $583,194 |
| Whakatū Nelson | -0.5% | -1.1% | 1.1% | -11.9% | $736,003 |
| Ngāmotu New Plymouth | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | – | $711,699 |
| Waihōpai Invercargill | 0.4% | 1.2% | 2.4% | -0.9% | $473,967 |
| Tāhuna Queenstown | -1.0% | -1.5% | 1.3% | -5.2% | $1,658,111 |
올해 5% 상승 전망…’완만한 상승세’에 무게
전망과 관련해, 데이비슨은 “2025년까지 전국 주택가격이 약 5% 상승할 것으로 예상된다”고 밝혔다. 그는 “이는 과거의 가파른 상승세에 비해선 다소 느린 속도지만, 최근 3개월간 1%에 가까운 상승률과 일맥상통한다”고 분석했다.
이어 그는 “빠른 가격 회복을 기대한 일부 투자자들에게는 실망스러운 전망일 수 있지만, 예비 주택 구매자나 초기 투자자들에게는 오히려 기회일 수 있다”고 말했다. 끝으로 “향후 부채 대비 소득비율(DTI) 제한 등 대출 기준 변화가 시장에 미칠 영향도 주의 깊게 지켜볼 필요가 있다”고 덧붙였다.